Perspectives on investment risk, market cycles and independent judgment.
How much confidence should a forecast deserve?
In addition to a forecast, you also need a good sense for the probability your forecast is correct, since not all forecasts are created equal.
Marks discusses the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and a potential trade war in his memo Nobody Knows (Yet Again).
The psychology of a market bubble
For me, it’s psychological extremeness that marks a bubble.
From On Bubble Watch: Marks examines investor enthusiasm, fear of missing out and the belief that an asset cannot be overpriced.
Leave room for disappointment
It’s our goal to construct portfolios where the surprises will be on the upside.
Marks explains why Oaktree uses cautious assumptions and a margin of safety, rather than relying on unusually favorable economic conditions.
Outperformance means standing apart
In order to outperform, by definition, you have to depart from the crowd. You have to hold a different position.
In a Talks at GS conversation recorded June 1, 2022 and published June 29, Marks explains why beating the market requires independent judgment and the resolve to hold unpopular positions.
An opinion is not a certainty
It’s one thing to have an opinion, but something very different to assume it’s right and bet heavily on it.
Marks distinguishes having an economic outlook from committing large amounts of capital on the assumption that the outlook must be correct.
The archive preserves what people said at the time. Older views and forecasts are not presented as current statements. Context provides supporting details; Read opens the source.