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Daniel Lacalle.

Selected perspectives on world affairs, politics and society.

3 quotesOriginal publication dates · Sources checked daily
Markets

The Everything Bubble Is Bursting, in Real Time

The process begins when cheap and elevated liquidity, which is the assumption underpinning inflated valuations, suddenly evaporates. Fiscal deterioration pushes up sovereign borrowing costs, the energy shock squeezes purchasing power, and monetary tightening exacerbates both. Tech stocks are the high-profile victims. However, the deeper danger lies in the repricing of the entire financial system’s foundation.
Daniel LacalleDaniel Lacalle ·
Written commentary
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For years, extraordinary money supply growth and negative real rates have pushed asset prices to unwarranted levels. The resulting “everything bubble” spread across real estate, private equity, bonds, and stocks. Now, it is bursting.

Markets

Democratic Socialism Demolished Europe.

Inflation makes the situation even worse. Euro area inflation rose to 3.8% in September 2026, with energy prices up 18.9% year-on-year. Governments that printed and borrowed their way through every crisis now discover that the real wages of their citizens cannot keep up. The cost-of-living crisis that sent hundreds of thousands into French streets has its roots in decades of too much government, not too little.
Daniel LacalleDaniel Lacalle ·
Written commentary
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German industrial production has fallen every year since 2022, and the BDI industry association no longer expects a recovery in 2026, only stagnation. Output in energy-intensive sectors is at its lowest level since the end of 2023. That is what happens when energy is made artificially expensive, labor is taxed at confiscatory rates, regulation multiplies, and capital flees.

Markets

Europe’s Diesel Shortage Is a Problem Created by Political Design

The EU minimum diesel excise is €0.33 per liter. America’s federal diesel tax is 24.4 cents per gallon, before state taxes and fees. European taxation adds a persistent cost wedge that cheaper crude cannot eliminate. This means that the average EU final diesel price is almost 50% higher than the US one. Thus, falling oil prices can provide relief without restoring competitiveness. Fixed duties remain, and scarce refining capacity may keep diesel expensive even when crude oil becomes cheaper.
Daniel LacalleDaniel Lacalle ·
Written commentary
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On September 21, EU diesel averaged €2.226 per liter, the highest reading in the European Commission’s series since 2005. Taxes accounted for €0.861, or 38.6% of the price. VAT applies on top of excise duties, effectively taxing the tax itself.

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